In 2024, China's lithium battery new energy industry entered an adjustment period, and investment expansion projects decreased significantly. According to incomplete statistics from the institute of higher industry research (GGI), in 2024, the planned investment of lithium batteries and main materials, sodium batteries, positive and negative materials and solid-state batteries in China was about 496 billion yuan, down 64% year-on-year. Specifically:

1) lithium battery in terms of, in 2024, there were about 60 new planning projects of lithium batteries in China (including contract signing, announcement and start-up, the same below), a decrease of 37% compared with 2023, and a planned production capacity of about 590GWh, a decrease of nearly 60% compared with 2023.

According to the investment amount announced by the project, the total planned investment of lithium battery in China in 2024 exceeded 180 billion yuan, a decrease of 68% compared with 2023.

2) in terms of lithium battery materials, in 2024, China's lithium battery cathode materials, cathode materials, electrolyte, diaphragm and copper foil projects planned to invest a total of 136 billion yuan.

Among them, copper foil and the planned investment amount of electrolyte decreased the most, both of which decreased by more than 90%, mainly due to the low processing fee, high copper price and low cash sales ratio of electrolyte enterprises in copper foil; The planned investment amount of negative materials decreased the least, it is 37%, mainly because 46 series large cylindrical batteries, semi-solid batteries and other new products drive the demand for fast charging negative electrode materials, silicon-based negative electrode materials and other products to increase.

3) Solid StateIn terms of batteries, there were about 33 new planning projects for solid-state batteries in China in 2024, with a planned production capacity of about 138GWh and a total planned investment of about 74.5 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, lower than that of lithium batteries.

4) in terms of sodium batteries, there were about 27 new planning projects for sodium batteries in China in 2024, with a planned capacity exceeding 180GWh and a total planned investment exceeding 82 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, three of them are 10 billion-level investment projects, which are respectively the 50GWh sodium electricity and energy storage Industrial Park project in Hohhot, Sichuan yanneng energy storage (20 billion yuan), BYD (Xuzhou) sodium ion battery project (10 billion yuan), integrated production project of Putai energy technology sodium ion battery in Jingzhou Economic Development District, Hubei province (over 10 billion yuan).

5) in terms of sodium battery materials, in 2024, the new planned investment amount of China's sodium battery cathode materials was about 16.4 billion yuan, down 59% year-on-year; The planned production capacity was about 490000 tons, down 40% year-on-year; in 2024, the new planned investment amount of China's sodium battery anode materials was about 6 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and the planned production capacity was about 230000 tons, up 22% year-on-year. Among them, the negative electrode material of sodium battery is the only growth link.

In general, in 2024, the pace of investment expansion of domestic lithium batteries and materials, solid-state batteries, sodium batteries and materials slowed down, but the investment expansion of new products such as solid-state batteries, sodium batteries and materials was still relatively active.

Looking forward to 2025, GII predicts that the expansion of lithium battery and materials enterprises will still tend to be cautious, and it is expected that 2026 will usher in a new wave of expansion cycle. In 2027, the industrialization of sodium batteries is expected to accelerate (shipment> 10GWh), and all solid-state batteries are expected to achieve small batch production.