Continuation of Forecast of ten trends of new energy storage market in 2025 (I)

prediction 5: Optical storage integration will accelerate the application in multiple scenarios, accelerate the application in microgrid scenarios, and highlight the collaborative advantages of photovoltaic enterprises.

After several rounds of price reduction in photovoltaic module and energy storage system for two years, the initial investment cost of photovoltaic + energy storage continued to decline, becoming more and more attractive as an investment choice in the global energy market. It is expected that the integration of optical storage will accelerate the application in overseas industrial and commercial and micro-grid scenarios, and the willingness of domestic large-scale industrial and commercial photovoltaic distribution and storage will be improved. Meanwhile, photovoltaic cross-border energy storage enterprises will develop in power stations, resource collaborative optimization will show greater advantages.

In addition, since photovoltaic enterprises, which are mainly based on photovoltaic module, entered the energy storage system, they have gained a certain market position in the global energy storage market by virtue of their channels, brands and localization advantages, it is expected that photovoltaic enterprises will continue to expand their competitive advantages in 2025, which will help photovoltaic module enterprises improve the overall efficiency of the company and become an important supporting business of the company.

Prediction 6: competition shuffling will continue, the top 10 card matches will basically end, and the competition among the top 10 companies will intensify.

The energy storage industry is undergoing the first wave of Reshuffle. Although many energy storage integration and battery enterprises have withdrawn one after another in 2024, the imbalance of supply and demand still exists structurally. In 2024, the CR10 of integrators and energy storage batteries were 82% and 94% respectively. It is estimated that the concentration of integrators will still rise to more than 85% in 2025.

under the price competition, the long account period and low price not only make the cash flow of small and medium-sized enterprises difficult. Due to the long industrial chain, large R & D investment and long capital occupation time, some top 10 enterprises also have bad debts, the problem of high debt does not exclude the risk of thunder.

In the volume, new changes have taken place in the competitiveness of the energy storage industry. Although the top ten players have basically been established, new markets, new products and new business models will become the next breakthrough in competition for enterprises, it is expected that the competition among the top ten enterprises will intensify in 2025. Apart from the fact that the head enterprises have certain advantages, there will still be certain variables in the market proportion of the second and third echelon enterprises.

Forecast 7: 0.25 yuan/Wh is the short-term bottom price of energy storage cell, and the system price for 2 hours is 0.5 yuan/Wh

the capacity utilization rate of energy storage batteries in 2024 was significantly higher than that in 2023 (40% rose to 65%), mainly due to the strong growth of global energy storage demand. However, judging from the competitive situation, the competitive price will continue until 2025.

From the perspective of cost logic, the gross profit of the main materials in the upstream of lithium battery is at a low level. It is estimated that the price of raw materials will decline by no more than 10% in 2025, and the price of some raw materials will rebound at the bottom. The price of energy storage battery is expected to fluctuate by no more than 10%, 0.25 yuan/Wh including tax will be the short-term bottom price of energy storage cell.

In terms of the cost of the AC-side system, the main cost-reducing components in 2024 except cell are fire protection system, temperature control system and BMS. The minimum system integration cost has reached RMB 0.11/Wh. Estimated 202The price reduction of the 5-year AC-side system (0.5C) is not large, which is consistent with the fluctuation law of cell and does not exceed 10%. However, disorderly and malicious low-price competition still exists.

Forecast 8: The second generation of energy storage cell 314Ah will become the mainstream, and large capacity cell will be used in small batches.

As the second generation of energy storage cell, 314Ah is a comprehensive upgrade of the first generation of energy storage cell 280Ah in terms of energy density, cycle life and product cost performance. In 2024, the penetration rate of 314Ah was about 40%, capacity accounted for about 52%.

With technological progress, large capacity cell will be fully replaced by 280Ah products in the future. Expanding the capacity of 314Ah cell is an inevitable choice and path for product and technological development. It is estimated that 314Ah will mainly complete the replacement of 280Ah cell in 2025, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 70%.

In 2024, energy storage battery companies launched large capacity cell (500Ah +, 600Ah +, 1000Ah +, etc.). Judging from the planned mass production time, the currently announced mass production nodes are concentrated in 2025, however, considering factors such as capacity climbing, yield improvement, cost reduction, and owner wait-and-see, it is estimated that cell of the ultra-large capacity will only be used in small batches in 2025.

Prediction 9: The energy storage system relies on cell and PCS to upgrade to other components.

In 2024, the grid-type energy storage, which is mainly based on the change of PCS, was very bright, and the power grid facilities were insufficient.The demand in the regional market is clear. In addition, with the blessing of 314Ah cell, the 5MWh energy storage system also accelerated penetration in 2024, accelerating to become the "mainstay" of the application generation ". Cell. PCS, as a key component of the energy storage system, will still be the main line of product iteration. It is expected that the energy storage system products will be gradually upgraded from other components in 2025.

In terms of temperature control, 1) the noise requirements of overseas energy storage equipment are becoming stricter, and the noise level is breaking below 65dB; 2) refrigerant direct cooling technology has cost advantages and is expected to achieve application breakthroughs in industrial and commercial energy storage fields; in terms of fire fighting, 1) the proportion of water mist route in the large storage market in northwest and eastern coastal provinces will continue to increase; 2) new fire fighting media such as compressed air foam and liquid nitrogen will emerge; In terms of BMS, new sensing technologies and algorithms will be upgraded to improve the overall accuracy and battery management strategy of BMS.

Forecast 10: the long-term energy storage in 2025 should be explored and developed, and the shipment of liquid flow batteries will exceed 2GW.

2024 liquid flow battery with the accelerated application of hybrid energy storage, the annual bidding for liquid flow batteries exceeds 3GW, of which hybrid energy storage accounts for more. All-vanadium redox flow battery + lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP) hybrid energy storage project accounts for nearly 60%. After the combination of the two, it not only gives full play to the characteristics of long-term energy storage and high power of liquid flow battery, but also improves the overall energy density with lithium iron phosphate battery, it makes up for the defects of single energy storage technology in different application scenarios.

It is predicted that the flow battery will continue the application trend of hybrid energy storage in 2025, and the annual shipment exceeds 2GW. The price of the 4-hour all-vanadium redox flow battery system is expected to drop to 2 yuan/Wh, greatly improving the economy of the flow battery, inject strong impetus into the acceleration of commercialization all-vanadium redox flow battery.