Recently, affected by the superposition of multiple positive factors, lithium carbonate has experienced a strong rebound.

On the futures side, lithium carbonate futures performed relatively strongly, standing at the 80000 yuan mark again. At the close on November 11, the main LC2501 contract rose 4.32% to close at 80950 yuan/ton.

In stock sides, lithium carbonate in stock steady with a rise, battery the price of grade lithium carbonate is 7.465-76350 yuan/ton, and that of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 7.085-71850 yuan/ton, both of which are up from the previous trading day.

The rise in lithium prices is mainly due to the expansion of overseas lithium mines and the over-expected end consumption, and the fundamental improvement to a certain extent.

Australian mine began to reduce production

since 2023, the sharp drop in lithium prices has caught Australian miners off guard and had to adjust their production and operation ideas. Among them, the best way is to reduce supply, which is also reflected in the third quarter financial report released by Australian mines one after another.

In the third quarter of this year, major overseas lithium minesThe total production of lithium concentrate by the enterprise is about 954000 tons, a decrease of 1.3 percent. The output of lithium mine project is basically stable, some of which have been reduced.

IGO: it owns Greenbushes of the world's largest lithium mines. The annual output of the 2024-year mine is 1.4 million-1.55 million tons of lithium concentrate; The annual output of 2025 is 135-tons.

Pilbara: the company's Pilgangoora mining area is one of the largest hard rock lithium deposits in the world, with an annual output of 66-690000 tons for 2024 fiscal years; the 2025 fiscal year production guidelines were lowered to 70-740000 tons in the third quarter after a sharp increase, and high-cost projects were suspended.

Mineral: This company owns Mt Marion, Wodgina and Bald Hill lithium mine.

Mt Marion2024 fiscal year output guidelines 38-440000 tons, cut to 30-340000 tons in fiscal year 2025, cut about 190 jobs and stopped 110 devices. Wodgina2024 fiscal year output guidelines 42-480000 tons, 2025 fiscal year output guidelines 42-460000 tons.

Liontown:Kathleen Valley lithium project is its main asset. However, since this project was just put into operation in July this year, no guidelines have been released.

From the 2025 production guidelines and cost guidelines disclosed by financial reportsLook, high-cost mines face the risk of production reduction and dormancy. For example, Mt Cattlin and Finnis have not restarted the two projects since they were suspended.

Can you witness 100000 yuan/ton?

First of all, the impact of Australian mine reduction on Lithium carbonate is obvious. Australia is the main source country of global lithium ore production, and about 98% of lithium is exported to China.

In the last cycle, the reduction of Australian mine played a key role in the recovery of lithium price.

In 2018, due to the loose supply in lithium carbonate, the price of lithium carbonate fell like a dive. The opening price at the beginning of the year was close to 160000 yuan/ton, but the closing price at the end of the year was only 70000 yuan/ton.

In response to the continuous decline in the price of lithium mine at that time, Wodgina, the original shareholder of Mineral lithium mine, announced to suspend the sale of raw ore in that year, and Pilbara and Mt Cattlin also followed up the production reduction one after another.

Since then, Australian mineral volume has decreased quarter by quarter. In the second quarter of 2020, the output of lithium concentrate dropped to 340000 tons, a decrease of 30% year-on-year, and the price decline of lithium concentrate began to slow down. At the end of 2020, with the decrease in output and the outbreak of demand, the lithium price bottomed out and rebounded, entering a two-year "super cycle".

<span style = "font-size: 14px;"> analysis shows that the current Australian lithium mine has begun to lose cash, and the production pace of projects under construction has also slowed down sharply, its follow-up attitude will have an important impact on the current market.

Secondly, when the supply side is adjusted, the terminal demand begins to improve.

Judging from the downstream production scheduling and procurement situation, the old-for-new policy is used to stack the car Enterprise's sprint at the end of the year, which makes the production scheduling of large material factories continue to be high, and the overall performance exceeds market expectations.

According to the data, from January to October, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were completed 9.779 million and 9.75 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 33% and 33.9% respectively; The cumulative loading capacity of power batteries was 405.8GWh, the cumulative year-on-year growth was 37.6 percent.

With the improvement of marginal effect, lithium carbonate has maintained the dewarehousing situation for 10 consecutive weeks. As of November 8, the inventory of lithium carbonate weeks was 110700 tons, a decrease of 3345 tons.

Even if the mine end increases or falls short of expectations, due to the seasonal demand of lithium carbonate and the trend growth potential of lithium salt supply, there is still uncertainty about the continuity of subsequent battery and material end replenishment.

Although the domestic new energy vehicle market has recovered, the overseas demand for new energy vehicles has not maintained a high growth, which has a restraining effect on the global demand for lithium. Generally speaking, the supply pressure still exists. Under the long-term oversupply market pattern, it is estimated that the range of lithium carbonate will fluctuate maintenance of price.</p>