Recently, the lithium carbonate market, which has become calm, has seen waves again.

On September 11, lithium carbonate main futures contracts rebounded strongly. As of the close, the main contract was reported at 78400 yuan/ton, up%, and once rose about 9% in the session.

The price of in stock also rebounded, and the price of battery meter lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan compared with the previous day, with an average price of 73500 yuan/ton.

On the same day, A shares that are slightly depressed also face a rising tide. By the close of the day, Tianqi Lithium Industry, Ganfeng Lithium industry and Jinyuan shares were all up and down, and Shengxin Lithium Energy and BYD increased by more than 5% and 3% respectively.

The surge may be related to the adjustment of production arrangements by the two companies lithium carbonate.

In the long run, this adjustment will benefit the lithium price under the background that the market supply and demand tend to balance. In the short term, the news also boosted market sentiment to some extent.

01

gradually cash in the production reduction behavior

since the current price in lithium carbonate last month fell below 80000 yuan at the same time, the contradiction between supply and demand has opened a new downward channel for lithium prices, and even touched 69700 yuan/ton at one time.

Up to now, the price of lithium carbonate in issue in stock is in the price range of 70000 yuan/ton-80000 yuan/ton, but this price has fallen below the cost line of supply and demand balance.

In terms of import and export, chile's exports to China fell for 4 consecutive months on the order of lithium carbonate, with exports falling 20% month on month in August and 11% year on year.

Chile is one of the major importers of lithium carbonate in China. Affected by the decrease in Chile's exports, it is expected that the import volume of lithium carbonate in our country will maintain a downward trend in September, and the balance will be improved to some extent at that time.

In terms of domestic production, enterprises with Foreign spodumene and Lepidolite processing lithium carbonate are facing severe challenges of upside-down costs. Some enterprises are unstable in construction, and the supply may be reduced to a certain extent.

According to statistics, in the face of high cost pressure, the operating rate of lithium salt plants decreased significantly in August, mostly due to the price drop leading to the production reduction of high-cost lithium salt plants, and the expected production reduction behavior is gradually being realized.

The price drop in Lithium carbonate is a reflection of the adjustment of the relationship between supply and demand in the market. Nowadays, the output reduction signal of enterprises is gradually showing, which means that lithium carbonate has entered the bottom-seeking stage.

UBS predicts that from now until the end of 2024, the lithium price is expected to have an upward space of 11%-23%.

However, another view is that the market sentiment and the fundamental improvement brought by the peak season are not expected to last.

The boosting effect of "nine gold and ten silver" is hard to predict, and the market is still in the process of reclaiming the database month by month, the production reduction of some enterprises is not enough to shake the overall pattern, the persistence of this rebound remains to be seen.

NoneFrom what perspective, it is still too early to talk about pattern reversal at this time.

02

ningde era can't help it

lithium carbonate lithium battery production as the growth of new energy vehicles once broke out, the price soared to 600000 yuan/ton.

But this "sky-high price" only lasted for less than a year, faced with the decline in prices of lithium carbonate, how industry chain enterprises respond has become the focus of the industry.

Facing the challenges brought by the decline in lithium carbonate, upstream enterprises need to carry out integrated capacity layout, integrate resources and reduce costs.

In January, Ganfeng Lithium announced that it planned to spend 65 million US dollars to acquire no more than 5% equity of Mali Lithium, further strengthening its control over Goulamina projects.

In March, Ganfeng Lithium industry announced that it signed a cooperation agreement with Pilbara to jointly develop upstream resources and plans to invest 50% of each investment to carry out feasibility study on the lithium chemical plant project.

In August, Pilbara announced that it would acquire Latin resource companies with important lithium mining projects in Brazil through full stock trading, with a total transaction volume of 0.56 billion Australian dollars.

Middle and downstream enterprises need to grasp the opportunities brought by the decline of lithium price, invest the saved cost into the research and development of new technologies and new products, and at the same time rely on the market occupied by lithium materials.Bargaining initiative began to "bargain bottom".

In January, the Enterprise consortium led by Ningde era and the National lithium company of Bolivia formally signed an agreement to build a pilot plant.

Not long ago, Ningde era signed an agreement with Ya'an lithium, a subsidiary of Ya'an group. From January 2026to December 2028, Ningde era purchased battery-grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate products from Ya'an lithium industry.

"When the price of lithium ore is low, we will purchase it. If the price is high, we will dig more of our own ore." The Ningde era once said so.

At this time, Ningde era could sign a long-term supply agreement with such a large hand, which also meant the current price is already the bottom price that the industry can form stable supply, to some extent, it also reflects its expectation of future price trends.